India’s South Asia Foreign Policy: A Strategic Misstep Leading to Regional Isolation

India, historically regarded as the dominant power in South Asia, is now facing a stark diplomatic reality: a growing sense of isolation among its neighboring countries. Many analysts argue that India’s foreign policy, once a driving force of regional cooperation and leadership, has become increasingly misguided, leaving the nation without strong allies in South Asia. This strategic misstep is raising concerns about India’s diminishing influence in its immediate neighborhood at a time when China is rapidly expanding its economic and political footprint.

The Shift in South Asia’s Geopolitics:

India’s complex relationship with its neighbors, including Pakistan, Nepal, Bangladesh, Sri Lanka, Bhutan, and the Maldives, has been marked by a mix of cooperation and conflict. However, in recent years, India’s perceived heavy-handedness in regional affairs has alienated several of its closest partners, reducing the scope of its influence.

1. Pakistan: The deteriorating relationship between India and Pakistan, particularly after the revocation of Article 370 in Kashmir, has severely impacted regional diplomacy. Trade ties have been severed, and political dialogue remains stagnant, with both countries caught in a cycle of hostility. This has stymied any efforts to revive the South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation (SAARC), further isolating India from broader South Asian integration.

2. Nepal: Once considered a strong ally, Nepal has increasingly distanced itself from India, primarily due to India’s interference in its internal politics and perceived economic blockades. Tensions peaked in 2015 when Nepal accused India of supporting a border blockade during the country’s constitutional crisis. Since then, Nepal has forged closer ties with China, seeking infrastructural support through the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI).

3. Sri Lanka: In the wake of Sri Lanka’s devastating economic crisis, India’s role as a regional savior has been questioned. While India extended significant aid to Sri Lanka, China’s strategic investments in Sri Lankan infrastructure, including the Hambantota Port, have given Beijing a stronger foothold. Many Sri Lankans view India’s support with suspicion, interpreting it as a move to exert political influence over Colombo.

4. Bangladesh: Relations between India and Bangladesh, once hailed as an example of positive bilateral cooperation, have also faced challenges. Contentious issues like the sharing of the Teesta River waters and India’s controversial Citizenship Amendment Act (CAA), which affects Bangladeshi migrants, have caused friction. Bangladesh has grown wary of India’s domestic policies that could destabilize bilateral relations, and Dhaka is increasingly diversifying its alliances, including deepening ties with China.

The China Factor:

China’s growing economic and military presence in South Asia is perhaps the most significant factor reshaping regional alliances. Through its Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), China has invested billions of dollars in infrastructure projects across Pakistan, Sri Lanka, Nepal, and Bangladesh, further marginalizing India’s influence. For many South Asian countries, China’s no-strings-attached financial aid and investments present an attractive alternative to India’s historically paternalistic approach. India’s reluctance to fully engage in the BRI and its growing economic competition with China have only deepened this divide.

Diminished Regional Leadership:

India’s influence as a regional leader has also waned in multilateral settings. SAARC, the primary forum for South Asian cooperation, has been largely inactive due to India-Pakistan tensions. In contrast, China has capitalized on India’s diplomatic absence, building alternative regional forums such as the China-led South Asian Forum and strengthening its participation in the Bay of Bengal Initiative for Multi-Sectoral Technical and Economic Cooperation (BIMSTEC).

Additionally, India’s foreign policy focus on broader geopolitical alignments, such as the Quad alliance with the US, Japan, and Australia, has led to a neglect of regional partnerships. While India’s engagement in Indo-Pacific strategy is important, it has come at the cost of strong bilateral ties with its immediate neighbors.

The Way Forward:

For India to regain its influence in South Asia, it needs to reassess its foreign policy priorities and embrace a more collaborative approach to regional diplomacy. Engaging with neighbors on equal terms, rather than through a dominant or transactional lens, is essential for rebuilding trust. India must also work to address the grievances of its smaller neighbors by offering more inclusive development partnerships and resolving bilateral disputes diplomatically.

Reinvigorating SAARC or focusing on alternative regional platforms like BIMSTEC could be vital steps toward reestablishing India’s leadership in South Asia. Furthermore, countering China’s influence will require a strategic shift in India’s economic diplomacy, with greater emphasis on regional infrastructure, trade, and cultural ties.