What happens to markets, gold & rupee if Russia goes to war

The Indian markets are not reacting negatively to the Ukraine crisis. Sensex, the benchmark index, is up about 100 points in intraday trade, even as global shares are showing a bit of bearishness.

“As far as the development in Ukraine is concerned there is one big thing which can influence India and that is oil imports; and this will start creating problem for the currency also,” says Nischal Maheshwari, EVP Research, EdelweissBSE -0.55 % Securities.
“Oil has already started going up. That is what’s going to actually create a bigger problem for us. It creates current account deficit, rupee depreciation, among other things,” he says.

Assuming a worst-case scenario, and of course the big event like the elections being a big overhang for our markets, what happens to the markets?
“Markets will remain rangebound for the reason that you do not have a very strong clarity as far as the elections are concerned. What is going to be the outcome … that is why people are anyway hesitant to take an overweight position on India. Now, in that kind of a situation if you have some concerns coming as far as the geopolitical situation is concerned, there would be pressure on the market,” he says.

Will the tension between Ukraine and Russia boost commodities?we have seen a spike in both crude and gold.
“In terms of commodity prices, yes, in the short term we are likely to see a degree of risk of trade that will be positive for gold and also oil; but once a resolution is in place then the swings will reverse,” says Robert Aspin, Head of Equity Investment Strategy, Standard Chartered.
Crisis spawns fortunes, they say. And also prices. Commodity prices have advanced to the highest level in almost six months as escalating tension in Ukraine fuelled worries that energy and agricultural supplies will be disrupted. Panic-ridden investors have turned to gold as a safe option. Here are the commodities that could face immediate heat if Putin goes to war.